Welcome to the first-ever edition of TheBlockExperience technical newsletter, I have just prepared my warm cup of tea and am just sitting down at my desk this morning to start writing up this edition. If you do appreciate the time and effort put into this weekly edition please remember to subscribe for regular access.
So today is 31st March, we are just about to close out another month of the year and we are also quickly closing in on the day of the eventful Bitcoin price halving, an event which has historically led to huge price increases as demands grows and the supply cuts in half. So where are we in terms of being ready for this spectacular event?
At the moment of writing this, the current price of Bitcoin is $6500 (give or take $50).
Now historically in the past, the lead up towards these spectacular events which are ‘halvings’ price has always dropped as large players in the space manipulate weaker hands into selling their positions at a cheaper price (a common and unfortunate practice). But 2020 is a completely different ballgame with the current COVID-19 situation, and pretty much the entire world economy collapsing.
So my thoughts right now from a macro perspective are that I’m pretty happy being 60/40 hedged (60% being exposed to crypto and the other 40% being in stable coins), and even though I’m super bullish on both the halving and the adoption Bitcoin can establish over the next 12-24 months, I am still aware of the current economic climate we are facing and that really does concern me right now. I would much rather wait a few extra weeks and be able to buy more at further downside that just enter all markets right now and watch the impact of COVID-19 slowly drain away my capital. People are scared, fear is in the air and simply people are just not deploying capital to any market
So what would need to happen for me to get bullish?
Honestly, $6900 needs to be flipped into support. All in all, I’m really just not that interested in buying based on technical indicators when the world is falling apart, price doesn’t really respect TA that well and the slightest news or announcement will really have an earth-shattering impact on price. That said, if I had to use technical analysis to determine where I would want to flip bullish then $6900 is that level, it has been major resistance since our break down and flipping it into support would be a small win for bulls in terms of trying to regain some of the 2020 losses.
What I’m overall expecting to see is generally more downside, I really think a retest of low 5000’s is what we should be expecting. I’m currently planning on adding longterm spot positions anywhere between $4800-$5400, this is where I would feel really comfortable adding to spot and would have no issues if we dropped below that as the risk to reward would be just too great at these levels to pass up.
Taking all this into account, I’m bullish on the next 12-24 months and I think once the dust settles on this whole COVID-19 situation and we have some room to breathe then we should really start to see some momentum and I think there is no real pressure for further downside movement, especially as the supply is once again cut in half.
Hope everyone is safe and spending quality time with your family, bitcoin will be there after this all blows over and I’m sure it’s going to be a crazy year. Buckle up!
- Cactus
Realistic and helpful analysis... Thank you...
Great analysis, thanks!