Dear Traders,
Today is the 15th June 2020, let’s get another daily technical breakdown published and talk about some of the recent moves we have seen on both the LTF and HTF charts. I hope this newsletter helps to explain in more detail my current bias for PA and where I think we could be heading over the coming days, weeks, and months! Enjoy!
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Daily Technical Breakdown
I hope everyone had an amazing weekend, if you have been following up with my tweets you have seen that yesterday I thought we would see further downside and hopefully tap this key support level that is $8875. Well, last night PA ended up breaking down and pretty much missed my level by about $40 give or take…
Pretty surprised by the speed in which price broke down and honestly I think PA is looking pretty bearish right now on the mid to high timeframes. LTF and today in particular I would be expecting the price to start to move a little to the upside and bulls need to show they have some intention to hold up this key support level that is shown on the chart above, 1H timeframe has to hold above $9050 at worst.
As you can see from the chart above we did wick below our key level of support but buyers did end up stepping in and the closes so far have been hopeful that we can see a bounce. I would not be rushing to enter a large long position here but deploying a small amount of capital here at this level could be nice if we do bounce back to $9300.
All eyes on if $9050 can hold throughout the day, if it does fail then the next stop would be $8800 level that I have been talking about for a long time now, thinking this is a really important level that will be crucial for HTF bulls to hold. Also, this is where I am currently seeing a lot of orders from buyers in that region. (Order Book Flow)
If we look at the daily chart, if we see buyers continue to hold this level throughout the rest of the day then we could start to be a little more bullish with our analysis, but until that happens I would be very careful rushing into a long position with a large portion of USDT here as we have not seen a HTF close, be patient and slowly buy-in over the coming few days and weeks as price either drops further or shows support.
If the daily close is below $9100 or even more $9000 then I would be very concerned for price action and I would probably be expecting price to start bleeding into the mid $8000’s region. As you can see $8600 is a super strong market level that has been only tested a few times previously since being in this range, and this is a level that I would really be expecting for bulls to defend. If bulls fails to defend this level then I think this could signal a pretty significant retrace for HTF momentum.
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If we take a look at the weekly chart, you can see that we have lost a pretty significant level in terms of our HTF chart. Daily could possibly be showing a bearish retest but looking for a long while the weekly chart is still under this resistance level is not currently the play I would be looking for. Weekly chart which is shown below still seems as though it wants price to tap against the weekly EQ level which is $8750.
As you know keeping a lot of USDT still on the sidelines for the moment, if you are feeling impatient about filling some buy orders then you could just slowly buy-in as we continue downwards or sideways from here. We would really need to see price pop up and reclaim some previous level of support for me to get bullish here.
Currently ETH/USD looking very similar to BTC right now on a HTF and I think we could actually see a retrace down to around $204 if bulls do not step in here to defend, as once we lose $220 it’s a pretty swift and fast drop from there. I would feel very confident with filling my buys around the $200 region as this is historically a very strong mental and physical level for price and taking into the 48 months of strong fundamentals ahead I think this would be the perfect place to fill some HTF buys.
We might not see $200 tagged on ETH as there is some minor support around $210 so you could slowly average in some buys once price drops below $210 just to make sure that you actually get filled and prevent yourself from missing a great opportunity. I think it is very possible that ETH could outrun Bitcoin in terms of % gains over the next 1-2 years so allocating some more of my portfolio to ETH when buying.
- Thanks for reading Cactus