Welcome back to another technical analysis newsletter, firstly just want to say sorry for the lack of posts this week for the newsletter. Sold everything and moved country so it was a very busy week in terms of just general life stuff but have tried to be as consistent as possible in uploading my technical analysis on twitter and telegram.
Firstly before jumping into TA, I wanted to share that tomorrow I will be taking part in the Bonded token sale. This is one of two of my public investments for Q4 of 2020, the token sale will be taking place Date: November 15th, 2020 —14:00 UTC. The token sale will last one week and you can find out more details about the same at sale.bonded.finance if you would like to prepare or participate in this public sale. These sales are of course high risk due to investing in projects super early but, I really like what bonded are doing and I think it could have a big impact on yield farming.
Firstly I just wanted to cover some HTF analysis on BTC, as a few hours ago I posted the below chart on Twitter and I think it has some important context going into the week ahead. Also just for reference, I do believe that a local top is imminent, so please be careful if you are in a leveraged long position, I personally have taken profit. I would even go as far as closing a % of spot positions if the entry-level is above $14,000 as I honestly do think that price will have a pullback before breaking new ATH next year. I would rather personally wait for a better entry than $15,800+.
The surprising thing that happened this week was that $16,000 was taken out by bulls and bears did not really seem to show any signs of defense or strength to push the price back down. Price actually got above and held for a longer period than I originally imagined and that really shocked me, as it’s the only HTF level left before ATH. This just further confirms that at the moment bears are too afraid to add large shorts.
Even though Bitcoin did break down a little on LTF and back below $16,000 it is an important level for price to reclaim going into this weekly close. I don’t think bears have the confidence at the moment to leverage large positions so its possible price can recover but honestly, it’s just a waiting game to see if price can reclaim $16,000. Another important thing to note is that if PA does breakdown more and bears start to feel more confident, price can easily correct -10/20% very quickly. so take precautions.
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When it comes to ETH, I feel as though there is still room to squeeze further to the upside and take out another HTF resistance level, which is currently $500. Due to the recent pullback with BTC, we are currently seeing ETH rest at $460, a major level of support that previously used to be resistance. Great that we still maintain this level.
LTF structure is still pretty bullish and it even seemed as though price was starting to break to the upside once again with some major strength. Even though there was some follow-through, the price only ended up touched around $480 last night before we see a pullback, I honestly thought we would tag $500 in that move. But I do still think ETH can move higher… The reason I think ETH can move without BTC is just due to the fact that sometimes ETH is the leading partner in the pair and sometimes BTC is the leading partner, the other one always catches up after a short delay. Also if you check the dominance, if we start to see any drop or accumulation ETH can still move higher.
You can also see that $450 is a major level for LTF support, previously tested twice, and maintained structure and this morning once again on another retest. Important that this level is maintained on the 4H, as breaking and closing below this could be an important signal that bears are starting to take back some major control. I would probably use $450 as a level to cut my leveraged long position if flipped resistance.
I still think that ETH can make a move again towards $500 but it’s very important that LTF support is maintained at $450 so we can build up enough momentum to once again have another leg upwards. Let’s see what happens with this weekly close first.
Of course, this is just my current thinking, I am still heavily positioned between both USD and ETH for the moment and still holding a range of alts which currently consist of, POLS, APY, DOT, and a few others. I think two of the best performing altcoins of the quarter will be POLS and APY. Both have major news coming before the end of the year and I am super excited to watch both of them rollout successfully.
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