Market Breakdown #14

Technical Analysis

Dear Traders,

Today is the 28th December 2020, let’s get another market update released, and talk about some of the recent moves we have seen across the board. I hope this newsletter helps to explain in more detail my current bias for PA and where I think we could be heading over the coming days, weeks, and months!


I also wanted to mention that yesterday we closed the official pre-sales for the premium newsletter for 2021, and tomorrow on the 1st January 2021 the NFT will be available on Rarible and will be announced on public telegram and twitter. If you would like to get access before spots that to fill, I will put the link to the sale below so that you can get yourself a spot. There are 100 slots for the entire year and it will be a first come first serve basis. Feel free to trade or sell your NFT token at anytime.

NFT Sale (95 Left)

This NFT will give you access to the Premium Newsletter (2 times a week) that we have been successfully running from April 2020. Private Telegram discussion channel, Access to portfolio and Live Trades, Access to positions and video TA breakdowns. Of course, you also get the $130 NFT art piece that you can sell or trade at any time you are less interested in staying a member. I also have 15 Golden NFT’s left so the next 15 people who purchase will also get a second free NFT worth $250. Thanks guys.

Simply just connect your metamask account to Rarible and click purchase, once this is done you will be able to click ‘Unlock Content’ and it will take you straight into the private telegram channel. Any questions or issues please feel free to reach out…

Technical Market Breakdown

Firstly let’s just start by looking again at the HTF outlook for BTC/USD and how far price action has come over the past few months. As you can see from the chart below, price has gone pretty parabolic over the past few weeks and honestly, I think now is probably not the time to be taking fresh leverage long positions, maybe not even spot depending on how long you are looking ahead to take profits. I think we are much closer to the top that people think and I think maybe once we tap $30,000 and tons of long positions are trapped price will start to see a major pullback.

The obvious pullback level for me when looking at this chart above is the low $20,000’s region, maybe around $22,000. That said it could possibly be around $24,000 its hard to say right now, once we see a few thousand dollar move to the downside it will be interesting to see how shorts and longs position themselves. I’m just wondering if bulls will have confidence like they have shown for the past few weeks once sellers that to get more confident in bringing the price back down lower. For those wondering, a pullback would be super healthy at these levels, it’s getting pretty crazy now and I really would like to see this pullback come fast and hard so that we can move onto the next phase of this bull market in 2021 and see some really high prices.

Low timeframe price action right now is literally just playing its game, liquidating positions on both sides and just being highly volatile. This is probably not the range to be trading in if you are a new or inexperienced trader, or if you enjoy using anything more than 3x leverage. It is super easy to get liquidated with the current price action we are seeing and it’s very difficult to see in which direction PA will be heading next.

Personally, I would be closing out of any leveraged position and maybe like 20% of my position and then just waiting to see what happens next, patience is important right now with PA being so high. If price action continues to go higher then you still have your spot holding which is increasing your portfolio and if BTC starts dropping then you took a nice little bit of profit that is ready to purchase more BTC at a lower time.

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If we also take a look at ETH nothing major has changed over the past 48 hours and like BTC it just seems at the moment that PA is literally just hurting traders on both sides of the market, longs and shorts combined. LTF there have just been so many wicks over the past 48 hours and anything more than 3x leverage is probably not a wise idea right now, very similar to BTC maybe a little harder to trade due to ETH also being tired to a ETH / BTC pairing. So when BTC goes up, ETH stays flat and when BTC goes down, ETH follows. A very hard trading pair over the past 48 hours, as you can see from the chart below we have see a little recovery but running into some important resistance levels that are ahead and must be flipped into support very soon.

Like BTC, my personal plan here is just to close down high leverage positions, take some spot profits (smaller than BTC maybe 10%) and then just wait to see what happens in terms of PA on this weekly close. We are going into a new year tonight (Happy new year!) so we might see some crazy move or volatile fuckery tonight.

HTF trend is just a completely different story compared to the LTF, macro trend is still extremely bullish over the long term and even though we can see that we might be running into resistance at $800 very soon, currently no reason to think we will see a pullback before that happens. I honestly think it is pretty likely, that any positions below $600 are pretty from liquidation are pretty safe but as we all know it’s pretty impossible to assume anything. I would be very happy if we had the chance to once again by some spot positions around $620 but BTC would have to probably pullback to around $22,000 for that to happen, so defiantly not out of the range of possibility.

Pretty happy on the market going into 2021, I think over the next couple of days I will get a portfolio update out for everyone who is in the NFT telegram channel and also take some chart requests. If anyone has any questions about PA or anything like that then please do leave a comment below and I will answer accordingly.

NFT Sale (95 Left)